After a rain-sodden first day of the Commonwealth Games heptathlon, Northern Ireland’s world silver medallist, Kate O’Connor, had a comfortable lead.

Not so large that it couldn’t still be reduced if something went wrong, but large enough to give her confidence that her path to gold was in her own hands, rather than in the control of another athlete.

After a disappointing shot, she had a brilliant solo run in the 200m to recover her lead and rescue her first day.

“I messed up that shot so badly,” she said afterwards. “I just couldn’t deal with the rain, and I’ve not thrown that short in a long, long time. The more I speak about it, the more annoyed I get at myself. I went out and I did myself proud in the 200m. I’m capable of running much faster, but in weather like that, with only 10 minutes to warm up, freezing cold conditions and lashing rain, I think I did a good job.”

The gap between O’Connor and the 2022 bronze medallist, Jade O’Dowda of England, was 49 points. O’Connor was on track to score around 6500, while O’Dowda was just a little short of the profile required to take her to her own PB of just under 6400 points.

Long jump

The fifth event, on Wednesday morning, was the last opportunity for someone to drop the ball, and for someone else to pick it up. O’Connor and O’Dowda have very similar lifetime bests, 6.50m and 6.55m respectively, both in that locale already this season.

If both were at the top end of that scale, the scores would rise, but the standings wouldn’t change. If Jade was at the top end and Kate struggling to get over six metres, then that would open up the competition again.

On Wednesday morning, though, it was secret option C. Both athletes split the difference and registered 6.37m and 6.26m respectively, a further small advantage to Kate but no real impact on their relative positions.

The final two events are two of O’Connor’s strongest, and crucially both better than O’Dowda’s parallel performances, and from this point onwards gold was the Irishwoman’s to lose.

But behind the leading pair, the positions shifted.

At the end of the first day, Australia’s Tori West, who just lost out to Mia Scerri in a brilliant national championships recently, was in fifth place, six points ahead of Anna McCauley.

After the 200m McCauley, the second Irishwoman in the field, was 25 points ahead of Ellen Barber of England. McCauley sat in sixth and Barber in eighth.

All three women jumped lifetimes bests in the long jump.

West improved from 6.11m to 6.13m. McCauley improved from 6.08m to 6.23m. Barber improved from 6.13m to 6.20m.

West remained in fifth place, with a strong javelin to come.

McCauley leapfrogged several athletes and into fourth place, with a good 800m in her portfolio.

And Barber moved up to sixth, with reliable marks in both events up her sleeve.

Thirty-four points covered fourth, fifth and sixth place positions after five events.

Javelin

Kate O’Connor has one of the best javelin throws in any heptathlon field, and with her first attempt, third in the throwing order, she launched one of her signature 50m plus throws, the spear landing at 52.85m. Job done.

Only misfortune could now stop O’Connor from upgrading her 2022 Commonwealth Games silver medal to gold.

For good measure she took one more throw, also over 50m, and then passed on her final attempt.

But O’Connor was not actually the best javelin thrower on paper. While her lifetime best is 53.06m, Tori West has a PB of 53.97m. That distance wasn’t on the cards for the Australian on this occasion, but her mid-range attempts would still likely be better than most others in the field.

And that was important, to build a buffer to mitigate the efforts of the faster women who would be metaphorically breathing down her neck in the 800m and physically running ahead of her towards the bronze medal in the final event.

West improved with each throw, 44.03m to secure points in the first round, 46.15m to push further in the second, and finally 47.24m in the third.

Her mark of 47.24m was the second best in the competition behind O’Connor.

O’Dowda threw 43.85m in the third round, a good effort and enough to consolidate her second position. Like O’Connor, barring disaster O’Dowda should be on track to upgrade her 2022 Games medal, from bronze to silver.

Ellen Barber was next, with a best throw of 42.77m. She might have wanted a little more, closer to 45m, but it brought her within sight of the podium.

Mia Scerri, the Australian who had been in third place after the 200m and after the long jump, dropped down to fifth place, with a best throw of only 36.30m.

Scerri’s final two events are not her strong suits, but that statement must be caveated by the fact that she is still only 21 years old, and very much on an improvement trajectory.

But she would be unlikely to improve enough on this occasion to remain in the mix for medals.

Anna McCauley has never thrown over 40m but has come close with a best of 39.35m. Her longest throw in this competition was 36.99m, a good effort, but far enough down the relative list – ninth overall – to impact on her placing.

So after six events, behind the top two, Tori West is in third place. Ellen Barber is in fourth, 95 points behind her.

And if you keep on reading, those 95 points are going to transform into a single potential point between bronze and fourth place.

800m scenarios

Let’s consider the different scenarios which could arise in the 800m.

Tori West is on 5214 points in third place. Tori’s 800m PB is 2:15.92, worth 880 points. If she runs her PB in the cool damp conditions of Scotstoun, it will take her to 6094 points.

Ellen Barber is on 5119 points in fourth place.Ellen’s 800m PB is 2:09.39, worth 974 points. If she runs her PB, it will take her to 6093 points, one point less than the same calculation for West.

It couldn’t be closer. Projections separated by a single point.

One point in the 800m scoring tables can cover multiple times within a 0.07-0.08s range, so it’s not practical to say exactly what the differential needs to be.

But if West can stay within about 6.5s of Barber, the difference between their PBs, the bronze could go to the Australian.

If Barber can stretch the gap beyond that, the bronze goes to England.

The arithmetic applies at a slower pace too – at their best they would both be approaching 6100, but the same gap plays out at a lower pairing of scores.

But in the unlikely event than neither West nor Barber runs eyeballs out, others could come into play too.

If Maddie Wilson of New Zealand, currently in sixth place on 5060 points, can run her PB of 2:11.53, she’ll be over 6000. Faster than that and she starts climbing towards 6050.

If Niamh Emerson of England, currently in seventh place on 5057 points, can run her best of 2:09.74, she’ll hit 6025. Faster than that, and she’ll start to come into the conversation too, if those above her lose pace.

Anna McCauley has, alas, likely too much to do unless O’Connor drags her to something significantly faster. McCauley’s best 800m is 2:10.54, which would take her to 5999.

Gold and silver looks settled. But there’s all to play for to win the Commonwealth Games heptathlon bronze. 

The 800m is at 2055 Glasgow time.

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WRITTEN BY: GABBY PIERACCINI